Last Call

California's unemployment rate in January? A nasty 10.1 percent. Counting all the underemployed and those who have given up looking for work, I'm betting the "real unemployment rate" is closer to eighteen percent or so...if not twenty. One in six, perhaps even one in five Californians are either out of work, are working only part time, or have given up on finding a job.

California represents 1/7th of the country by itself. It is far over the national average of 7.6% and the tarnished Golden State numbers are dragging it way up. The bad news is that the national average is then well under the actual numbers and will be revised upwards next week when the February numbers come out.

If the February numbers are where I think they are going to be, we'll be well into 8% plus nationally on Thursday, and it's entirely possible the February numbers could hit as high as 8.5% with a strong upwards revision on the January numbers to 8% even.

I don't want to be right on this one. Those revised GDP numbers are f'ckin terrifying. I fully expect 1Q 2009 to be a 7% contraction or so, if not (Flying Spaghetti Monster help us) 8%.

We're honestly getting to the point now where we have to start calling this what it is.

Economic Depression.