Buzzkilling the GOP

With the Republicans throwing around the notion that the Tea Parties are just the tip of the iceberg and the Village meme (sorry Cilliza, you're out of your damn mind) that after just 90+ days the country is somehow so magically fed up with Obama and the Democrats that the GOP will retake the House in 2010, it's nice to see the grown-ups are weighing in on the sheer stupidity of the idea. (emphasis me)

Yes, Republicans have plenty of opportunities in good districts following their loss of 53 House seats over the past two cycles. And yes, there are signs that the Republican hemorrhage has stopped and even possibly that the party’s fortunes have begun to reverse course.

But there are no signs of a dramatic rebound for the party, and the chance of Republicans winning control of either chamber in the 2010 midterm elections is zero. Not “close to zero.” Not “slight” or “small.” Zero.

Big changes in the House require a political wave. You can cherry-pick your way to a five- or eight-seat gain, but to win dozens of seats, a party needs a wave.

Recruiting better candidates and running better campaigns won’t produce anything like what took place in 1980, 1994, 2006 and 2008, when waves resulted in huge gains for one party. The current political environment actually minimizes the chance of a near-term wave developing.

The problem for Republicans is that they aren’t yet in the position — and won’t be in one by November of next year — to run on a pure message of change, or on pent-up demand for change.

Waves are built on dissatisfaction and frustration, and there is little in national survey data that suggest most voters are upset with President Barack Obama’s performance or the performance of his party.

Obama’s job approval generally falls between 55 percent and 63 percent, and his personal favorable numbers are as strong or slightly better. The trend line on the right direction/wrong track question shows a growing optimism, as do attitudes about the direction of the economy.

A recent Pew Research Center poll found two out of three Americans saying that they were optimistic “that Barack Obama’s policies will improve economic conditions in the country.”

All of these numbers show a public that is more upbeat than it was before the last election, and optimism produces status quo elections, not an electorate demanding change.

The uptick in mood, combined with the public’s still-vivid memory of the disappointing Bush years, makes it almost impossible for Republicans to deliver a change argument successfully. GOP candidates and strategists will have to wait for at least another election cycle before they can hope that a change message will resonate with voters.

Yes, 2012 may be a different story, and if the economy follows the path I'm predicting (a serious contraction in 2009, and anemic growth of less than 1% per year for 2010-2012 and perhaps beyond if not a slight contraction) then the 2012 elections may be very different. But 2010 will not see a Republican realignment. Worst case is they lose 8-10 seats, best case they gain that. And the Dems will certainly make big gains in the Senate next year, even the GOP has to admit it.

It's not looking good at all for the GOP.