That Poll Axed Look

Tuesday I remarked that when only 21% of Americans call themselves Republicans in your poll, your party is in deep trouble.

Now a number of polls show that the percentage of Americans identify themselves as Republicans has fallen into the low 20's.

The number of people who self-identify themselves as Republicans continues to shrink, as evidenced by four separate national polls released over the last five days. If this doesn't scare party leaders, they're not paying attention.

The Post/ABC poll found 21% of Americans identify themselves as Republicans. The NYT/CBS poll put the number at 20%. NBC/WSJ also put the GOP number at 20%.

The latest Pew Research Center study has a better take on the GOP's standing, but only slightly.

Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter's switch to the Democratic Party on Tuesday highlights what is happening across the nation among Republicans -- they are walking away from the GOP.

The latest survey from the Pew Research Center offers new data on the party's diminishing ranks: just 23% of respondents identified themselves as Republicans, down from 25% in 2008 and from 30% in 2004.

Republicans have lost about a quarter of its base over the past five years.

Four polls, four results showing that only about a fifth of the population consider themselves Republicans. To put that in perspective, in 1992, Ross Perot and whatever it was his party was called got about 19% of the vote nationwide. Republicans are only slightly stronger now.

That's staggering. And yet, they continue to double down with their mistakes over the last several years.

We really are living in a one party system in 2009, and it's because the second party is rapidly becoming non-viable.

[UPDATE] The best political numbers guy in the business, Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, crunches the digits and comes up with this:

The shifts in the number of Republicans and independents appears to be a somewhat recent phenomenon, dating not from Inauguration Day itself but rather from the past 50 days or so. My guess is that it is related to increasing -- if possibly unwarranted -- optimism about the economy, perhaps coupled with the GOP's lack of focus in articulating an agenda.

Roughly 50 days ago was when Obama signed both the order overturning Bush's stem cell research ban on March 9 and signed the omnibus spending bill into law on March 11, clearly both big accomplishments for the President.

But I'm thinking the events that caused this mass defection to Independent was caused by the following: Republicans called Obama's overturning of Bush's stem cell ban, something approved by a large majority of Americans (including Independents) a "distraction", which may have hurt, but I honestly think the "Which 2012 hopeful can reject the most stimulus money for their state?" story which started ramping up around the same time. Who could forget the rogues' gallery of GOP governors racing to the bottom by rejecting unemployment benefits from the recently signed stimulus bill?

If you're looking for a correpsonding series of events that would cause GOP voters to switch to Independents since Inaguration Day, there you are. The dim realization that the 2012 nominee would be somebody like Rick Perry, Bobby Jindal, Sarah Palin or Mark Sanford would certainly turn off more moderate GOP voters in droves.