A Jumbo-Sized Foreclosure Problem

Earlier this week I talked about the residential real estate market in Phoenix, Arizona, and noted the real problem will be foreclosures in the high-end market nationally. How bad is the real estate market for high-end homes?

This bad, according to CNBC's Diana Olick.

I heard a startling statistic from the National Association of Realtors this morning…no not that home sales are actually increasing, but something about the high end of the market.

Chief economist Lawrence Yun said that the supply of existing homes for sale over $750,000 has reached a forty-month supply. Yep, that means it would take well over three years at the current place to sell off all of those homes.

The trouble is manifold: Jumbo loans are pricier and more difficult to get, job losses are mounting, and buyers in that price home are generally move-up buyers, so they have to sell their own homes first. I asked Mr. Yun if, given how hard it is to sell a home in that price range, he expects to see more foreclosures of high-end properties. He said absolutely.

That’s going to mean a new phase of the current housing recession. So far we’ve seen the “correction” of a boom market that was driven by faulty, exotic loan products, investors looking to make a quick buck, and average Americans using their homes as ATMs. Now the losses are being driven by traditional economic factors and by sweeping price drops across the nation.

And with rising interest rates brought on by the bond market selloff, this particular problem will only get worse. A 40-month supply of $750,000 homes on the market? That would be hysterical if it didn't mean these homes are going to continue to lose billions and billions in value. A bottom in the housing market? Please. The depression is raging.

Oh, and it gets worse:

Yesterday Fitch ratings estimated that up to 75 percent of the modifications now being done through the administration’s Making Home Affordable program will re-default in six months to a year. I’m not talking about the old mods, which were largely repayment plans that could actually raise monthly payments. I’m talking about the new mods, which lower monthly payments to 31 percent of a person’s income. I couldn’t understand Fitch’s reasoning, so I called them.

Diane Pendley, managing director at Fitch, said the problem is not on that “front-end” ratio, but on the back end, which is all of the borrowers other debt (credit cards, car loans, student loans, etc.). She said that in talking with servicers, she’s hearing other debt is so high that most of today’s troubled borrowers cannot afford any loan payment at all, even at a very modest debt to income ratio. “Just getting the house payment done doesn’t mean their lifestyle is sustainable,” she said.

In other words, there's a very good chance that 4Q this year and 1Q next will see a massive foreclosure spike again.

Oh, but it gets worse.

Another problem is that with home prices continuing to fall, more and more borrowers, who are essentially just renting their mortgages now because they will never see any home equity, are walking away. Even if the mortgage payment is low, the property taxes and home maintenance costs are padding that payment, and without an upside to the investment, there’s simply no reason to pay.

Jingle mail, jingle mail, jingle all the way...

What recovery? Until housing turns around, America is sunk...and it may be another year or more before that happens.

[UPDATE] Mortgage delinquency numbers are out: Roughly one in eight homeowners is now 30 days or more late on their mortgage or in forclosure (emphasis mine):

A record 12 percent of homeowners with a mortgage are behind on their payments or in foreclosure as the housing crisis spreads to borrowers with good credit. And the wave of foreclosures isn't expected to crest until the end of next year, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.

The foreclosure rate on prime fixed-rate loans doubled in the last year, and now represents the largest share of new foreclosures. Nearly 6 percent of fixed-rate mortgages to borrowers with good credit were in the foreclosure process.

At the same time, almost half of all adjustable-rate loans made to borrowers with shaky credit were past due or in foreclosure.

The worst of the trouble continues to be centered in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, which accounted for 46 percent of new foreclosures in the country. There were no signs of improvement.

The pain, however, is spreading throughout the country as job losses take their toll. The number of newly laid off people requesting jobless benefits fell last week, the government said Thursday, but the number of people receiving unemployment benefits was the highest on record. These borrowers are harder for lenders to help with loan modifications.

Congress killed cramdown too. We may not see the bottom of the housing depression until 2011, folks. The Great Recession rolls on.

Watch the stock market closely. The "correction" is coming and soon.