The economy, of course, will have much more short-term influence over Obama's popularity. And, yes, a lot of conservatives these days think that the government hiring people and buying goods can't do anything o reduce unemployment or stimulate demand. But what if the economy recovers anyway? Isn't it possible? I mean, I thought George W. Bush's economic policies were unlikely to stimulate long-term growth and out of line with public priorities, but I wasn't certain that they'd cause short-term economic pain or make him unpopular by the end of his second term. (They did do that, but the outcome wasn't preordained.)I've been talking about the GOP Plan for months now, and it's not "Short Obama" as Chait puts it, but Destroy Obama. The reason the GOP isn't making any contingency plans is simple: if Obama actually passes anything that remotely resembles universal health care, climate change legislation, and the EFCA, then the GOP is toast. They don't have a contingency plan because they are facing political obliteration if they fail. The GOP has to stop Obama, or the Democrats control Washington for a generation. Period. This wouldn't be a minor setback like the Bush backlash. This would be a generational shift that would bury the GOP so deep in the political wilderness, they would be powerless. They know this. They aren't fighting a popular Preaident, they are fighting for survival. After FDR, the Democrats controlled Congress for almost 60 years. The GOP knows this.
I'm not saying the economy will recover or that Obama will stay popular. Quite possibly, four years from now we could still be mired in a worldwide depression and Obama could be facing dismal -- who knows, even Bush-like -- popularity ratings. The world is unpredictable. But isn't there a pretty decent chance that the economy will have recovered, and Obama's policies will look fairly wise in retrospect? Do Republicans want to make any political plans for this contingency?
Either Obama goes down in flames, or the GOP does. That was true in January, it's true now, it'll be true as long as Obama hasn't passed his key legislation yet. There's a reason that that GOP is trying to do everything they can to kill Obama's proposals...because they will mean the end of the Republicans' political power in this country for decades.
Steve Benen has more on this.
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