Al Versus Norm, Part 1102

So, Minnesota's Republican Gov, Tim Pawlenty, is not running for re-election.

Pawlenty has remained a relatively popular chief executive of a state that is trending blue. But his "my-way-or-the-highway" stance on tax hikes may diminish his standing by the end of his term. His unflinching opposition has earned him plaudits from conservatives, but it has frustrated his Democratic state legislature. Pawlenty's name is now attached to $3 billion in budget cuts, resulting in praise from the Wall Street Journal and Americans for Tax Reform. Without re-election pressure, he's free to experiment even more.

57% of Minnesotans say they'd be open to someone else as governor, a sign that Pawlenty, although still personally liked by the voters, has worn out his welcome. Fairly conservative on most issues, Pawlenty has taken centrist stands on environmental legislation and health care; he is very frustrated with the tone his party has adopted; if, at some point before 2012, he decides to retire from politics altogether, I wouldn't be surprised.

As Josh Marshall points out, that's actually bad, bad news for Democrat Al Franken.

That's because the most probable next step in the endless Franken-Coleman drama is that the Minnesota Supreme Court will rule in Franken's favor and it will fall to Pawlenty to issue the certificate of election that will get him seated in the senate. The details are sort of murky. But the upshot is that Pawlenty will likely have just enough wiggle room to refuse to do so, if he wishes, perhaps using the excuse of possible litigation on Coleman's behalf in the federal judiciary.

As long as he was going to run for governor and had to face Minnesota voters again, there was good reason for him not to completely stick his finger in the eye of the election process. But now that's not holding him back. And since he's probably running for president, he'll have tons of incentive to pander to the hardcore tea-bagging wing of the GOP and keep Franken out of the senate as long as he can.

In other words, if Pawlenty doesn't have to worry about pleasing Minnesota's moderates anymore, he can earn points with primary voting GOP hardliners and earn 2012 primary cred by giving Al Franken the big screw you and refusing to sign off on Franken becoming a Senator until Norm Coleman exhausts all federal avenues, up to and including the US Supreme Court.

It's possible that worst case scenario may be Franken is denied his seat until well into 2010. And should the Supremes actually take up this case, it could end up setting a precedent where basically every election in 2010 is challeneged by the GOP.