Al Versus Norm, Part 1242

It's over. Minnesota's Supreme Court has unanimously ruled that Al Franken is the winner.

The courts finds that "Al Franken received the highest number of votes legally cast and is entitled under Minn. Stat. § 204C.40 (2008) to receive the certificate of election as United States Senator from the State of Minnesota." This means that when Franken is ultimately seated, the Democrats will have 60 seats and be able to beat any Republican filibuster if they stay completely united (though good luck with that, obviously.)

It's been seven and a half months since Election Day, and five and a half months since the seat went vacant after Coleman's term expired -- but the state's process of recounts and litigation is now over, barring the unlikely event of a higher authority stepping in and forcing them to do more. Franken has won by 312 votes, out of roughly 2.9 million -- a difference of 0.011%.

The big question now is what comes next. Will Coleman concede, or will he take another path -- as national GOP leaders like Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) have urged -- and take this to federal courts, where he might try to get an injunction against Franken receiving a certificate of election? And if Franken does get his certificate, will the Senate GOP attempt to filibuster its acceptance?

Given the stakes of health care and cap and trade, you'd better believe that the GOP won't let this die however. It may be over, but I seriously doubt it's over over. Will Franken be seated? That's up to Republican Gov. Tim Pawlenty. As recently as Sunday, Pawlenty strongly hinted that he would do whatever the courts decided, meaning that unless Coleman files a federal case, the pressure to seat Franken will be overwhelming.

What will Norm do now?

[UPDATE 3:30 PM] Several press conferences this afternoon, Gov. Pawlenty, Franken, and Coleman will all be giving pressers here in the next couple hours. Over at Hullabaloo, D-Day seems to have the come to the same conclusion I have:

Tim Pawlenty has said all along that he would certify the winner of the election if the Minnesota Supreme Court told him to do so. They have now told him. But all along he gave himself an out, that he would certify it as long as another court didn't tell him to stop pending another appeal. Coleman could proceed to the federal courts at this point, and national Republicans have been happy to bankroll him on that fruitless quest and keep Al Franken out of the Senate as long as possible. It's a good investment for them. Also, Senate Republicans could actually filibuster Franken's entry into the Senate, even with a signed certificate.

I'm skeptical that this will conclude so smoothly from here.

The additional penalty to Coleman and the GOP is almost nil at this point, and the Democrats have a lot more to lose right now. As D-Day says, it's a good investment for the Republicans.

I've personally said all along the Roberts Court was looking for a case to make some serious judicial activism over, and Coleman's federal appeal would most certainly be a blockbuster in bench legislation should they agree to take it up. I'm fully expecting Coleman to take it to the next level, for Pawlenty to slime his way out of signing Franken's certificate, and for Al Franken to twiddle his thumbs long enough to miss being a yes vote for health care and climate change legislation.

This situation has "go for broke" written all over it. We know Coleman won't rule out a Federal appeal, he's said as much. If I'm a Republican, I'm thinking "Why not? What do we have to lose?"

[UPDATE 4:13 PM] Against all odds, Norm Coleman has in fact conceded to Franken, putting this to a definitive end.

Senator Al Franken is official. I was wrong about Coleman. In the end he did the right thing. Shame it only took him seven months to do it.