Famine And Feast

Financial analyst Meredith Whitney says she sees the unemployment picture getting brutal and problems lasting for years, with the U-3 topping 13 percent. Even my worst numbers are in the 11-11.5% range in late 2010. In all seriousness, 13% would mean a U-6 number upwards of 20%, and locally we'd see individual counties with an effective unemployment range in the 40, maybe 50% range. That seems very bad, we're talking about another six million jobs going poof if she's right and almost certainly a double dip recession.

Naturally, Wall Street ignored the 13% figure and decided to concentrate on the rumors swirling around Goldman Sachs that the bank's about to announce a $2 billion quarterly profit.

Analysts predict the bank earned a profit of more than $2 billion in the March-June period, because of its trading prowess across world markets. If they are right, the bank’s rivals will once again be left to wonder exactly how Goldman, long the envy of Wall Street, could have rebounded so drastically only months after the nation’s financial industry was shaken to its foundations.

The obsessive speculation has already begun, along with banter about how Goldman’s rapid return to minting money will be perceived by lawmakers and taxpayers who aided Goldman with a multibillion-dollar cushion last fall.

“They exist, and others don’t, and taxpayers made it possible,” said one industry consultant, who, like many people interviewed for this article, declined to be named for fear of jeopardizing business relationships.

Startling, too, is how much of its revenue Goldman is expected to share with its employees. Analysts estimate that the bank will set aside enough money to pay a total of $18 billion in compensation and benefits this year to its 28,000 employees, or more than $600,000 an employee. Top producers stand to earn millions.

It was nice of us to help get rid of Goldman's competition. Dow's up 150 at 3:30 PM. What a great economy we have!