Last Call

As I've been saying, the downside of such a long recession is that unemployment benefits are running out for people. The NY Times is reporting about 1.5 million unemployed are going to slip through the system here before the end of the year.

Because of emergency extensions already enacted by Congress, laid-off workers in nearly half the states can collect benefits for up to 79 weeks, the longest period since the unemployment insurance program was created in the 1930s. But unemployment in this recession has proved to be especially tenacious, and a wave of job-seekers is using up even this prolonged aid.

Tens of thousands of workers have already used up their benefits, and the numbers are expected to soar in the months to come, reaching half a million by the end of September and 1.5 million by the end of the year, according to new projections by the National Employment Law Project, a private research group.

Unemployment insurance is now a lifeline for nine million Americans, with payments averaging just over $300 per week, varying by state and work history. While many recipients find new jobs before exhausting their benefits, large numbers in the current recession have been unable to find work for a year or more.

Calls are rising for Congress to pass yet another extension this fall, possibly adding 13 more weeks of coverage in states with especially high unemployment. As of June, the national unemployment rate was 9.5 percent, reaching 15.2 percent in Michigan. Even if the recession begins to ease, economists say, jobs will remain scarce for some time to come.

And the pain goes on and on and on. These people will be the next to contribute to the wave of foreclosures and other problems. Home prices will remain low or fall as more homes enter the market. That in turn will continue to drive more people out of their homes as their mortgages go underwater.

Despite the turnaround in the Dow, the reality is that the economy will be stuck in the doldrums for a very, very long time.