Poll Vaulting

Back in May, Steve Benen noted that a Gallup poll showing the percentage of Americans who considered themselves to be "pro-life" outweighed "pro-choice" was probably an outlier. I thought it was statistically significant.

Turns out Steve was right.

In mid-May, Gallup released a poll that found 51% of Americans calling themselves "pro-life" and 42% "pro-choice." It was the first time a majority of U.S. adults had identified themselves as pro-life since Gallup began asking the question. Last week, however, Gallup released a follow-up poll showing the pro-life lead evaporating, dropping from nine points to one, 47% to 46%.

However, I do agree with Steve on the point of the media reaction to the poll: almost nothing.

In mid-May, the Gallup poll showing surging "pro-life" numbers generated a huge amount of media attention, including a lengthy AP story that appeared in papers across the country. The poll also generated stories in the Washington Post, the Boston Globe, the LA Times, and the Washington Times. The poll also got plenty of play on the cable news networks.

And what about last week's Gallup poll, showing relative parity between "pro-life" and "pro-choice"? Major news outlets ignored it almost completely. The Associated Press pretended it didn't exist. The number of articles published in major newspapers? Zero. Blogs mentioned it, U.S. News did an online item, and UPI ran a piece. That's it.

So, to review, Gallup results showing strong "pro-life" numbers are a huge story, even though the results were dubious. Gallup results showing weaker "pro-life" numbers are a non-story, even though the results made sense.

He's dead right about that. The one news organization I can find an article on it from last week is Dan Gilgoff's God & Country blog over at U.S. News, showing the country is evenly split on the issue, as it has been roughly for the last several years.

It's probably just a reaction to having a Democrat in the White House. During the Bush years, the country's pro-choice position had edged ahead with a similar 9-point lead in mid-2006, so it makes sense that with a Democrat in the White House that pro-life Americans would be more vocal. Apparently in May, they were very vocal.

Lesson learned.