What's Gone Wrong?

Looking over the evidence from an objective 30,000 feet perspective, I have to say that the health care fight is all but over, as is the President's entire agenda. Thing may change should the economy improve, but the Republican Party has won this battle by going straight to the fears of the middle-aged, middle class White American.

And that group still determines America's policy path for now. Yes, the future demographics show that group is becoming a smaller and smaller part of the American electorate. But for now, they still run the show, just as they always have in modern politics.

The Republicans have won this battle because President Obama is unable to offer them what the Republicans are offering them: control of the country. They see Obama reaching out to African-Americans and Hispanics and white liberals, and more conservative whites just don't see where they have a place in the Democratic Party anymore. They're aware of the fact the Republicans screwed up and put the country in this mess. They hated George Bush. But they see no future for themselves with Barack Obama, either. That's Barack Obama's fault.

They remember the "bitter" remarks from the campaign. They remember his white grandmother and mother. They remember he's not like them. Does that make them racist? No, actually, far from it. For the first time we have a President that's not like the majority of the voting populace. Of course that's going to make people uncomfortable.

Only now has the President decided to address that part of the country today in an op-ed in the NY Times, and while it's a good piece, it's too late.

Republicans have expertly mined that fear and mistrust. Obama's one real effort to address race in this country turned into the Skip Gates fiasco. What Obama said I believe needed to be said, but the political reality of the truth is that it hurt him badly. America has never had to deal with this before. The Republican Party is attacking on this angle with everything they've got, and it's paying off.

It's sunk in for a lot of Americans now that change is coming, and they don't want it. I have people telling me all the time two things: "I like my health care plan now" and "You can't trust the government to provide health care." A full 30% of America has government-provided health care already and it works, and they are the people most hostile to allowing the rest of the country have it.

They're afraid of Barack Obama and what he'll do. They don't trust him. We're out in uncharted waters. As I pointed out Friday, the only thing that saved American from John McCain was the fact he refused to go the full birther route. If the Republican Party had done they what they have done in the last two months of the election, John McCain would have won easily. McCain, for some reason, refused to try to win that way.

The rest of the Republican Party leaders learned the appropriate lesson. The Democrats continue to stumble around wondering why there's so much hatred and mistrust of the President right now, why there are such strong negative emotional feelings. The Republicans have taken this to an existential level. They are fighting for the status quo.

And there's a hell of a lot of people out there who are perfectly happy with the way things are. Republicans have played this perfectly. The Democrats refuse to stoop to that level. Because of that, they'll lose. They are more afraid of change then they are losing their health insurance or getting sick. It'll be the same story on education reform and immigration reform and climate change.

At this point it's all over but the shouting. And the shouting will go on for another 39 months.

[UPDATE 10:49 AM] The Too Long, Don't Read Short Version: Republicans are defining the battleground and the battlefield. Democrats really can't believe this white fear thing is working. It is. Average white guy drives down to the mall, on the way from his house he passes a bodega, Korean BBQ joint, Indian grocery store, Thai noodle shop, 2 foreign car dealerships, Japanese restaurant, 3 Mexican restaurants, the Jeep place is going out of business and the Starbucks and McDonalds has a black President on TV. None of this crap was here ten years ago. He sees the mall has big, empty spots in it. He's scared as hell. He blames Obama for it all.

Yeah, that works for him.