Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Jobapalooza Preview

ADP's preview of Friday's job loss numbers are coming in at 298K, still worse than expected.
The median of estimates from 31 economists surveyed by Reuters for the ADP Employer Services report, jointly developed with Macroeconomic Advisers, was for 250,000 private-sector jobs lost last month.

The ADP and Macroeconomic Advisers said its National Employment Report is designed as a proxy of the government's monthly non-farm payrolls report.

"Employment losses are clearly diminishing," Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisors, said in a statement. "Despite recent indications that overall economic activity is stabilizing, employment, which usually trails overall economic activity, is still likely to decline for at least several more months, albeit at a diminishing rate."

Still, economic activity is going to be largely curtailed as layoffs continue. We still need to get to +150K a month to get back on track, and by that number we're over ten million jobs shy right now in this country.

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