Here is a graph with an estimate of the impact of the preliminary estimate of the annual benchmark revision. (ht John)In other words, almost two years after this recession began, we've lost five percent of the jobs in this country. Only the recession of 1948-50 came close to that, and it was over after two years. We're still looking for the bottom. The reality is we've almost lost six percent of the jobs in this country.Click on graph for larger image.
The dashed line is an estimate of the impact of the large benchmark revision (824 thousand more jobs lost).
The graph compares the job losses from the start of the employment recession in percentage terms (as opposed to the number of jobs lost).
Instead of 7.2 million net jobs lost since December 2007, the preliminary benchmark estimate suggests the U.S. has lost over 8.0 million net jobs during that period.
They're not coming back, for the most part. Eight million jobs lost in 21 months. America will be fundamentally different. There will be no V-shaped recovery. There will be no easy or quick fixes. It's going to be a long, hard slog, and frankly I doubt we'll get those eight million jobs back for a very, very long time...and the truly miserable part is there's still going to be millions more jobs lost before we turn the corner.
The housing market is still in a depression. The American consumer is tapped out. Our economic engine is broken. America will have to reinvent itself, and when it does, it will no longer be the economic superpower, that mantle will have passed to China.
Our time is coming to a painful end, folks.
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