Still The Most Wrong Pundit In America

Our Jonah Goldberg.

One of the most macabre images I've ever heard described came in the aftermath of the Asian tsunami in 2004. Before the tidal wave crashed on shore, beachgoers stood around and idly gaped as the water drastically receded. Bewildered, they didn't realize they were looking at the prelude to a calamity.

The Democratic party looks more and more like those beachgoers every day, watching popular support recede, oblivious to the Perot tsunami coming our way.

In 1992, the incumbent president, George H. W. Bush, was a disappointment to his party's base and a pariah to the Democrats. Government seemed to have lost its grip. The deficit became a massive issue, a symbol of out-of-control government. The hangover of Cold War sacrifices, the S&L bailout, runaway crime, huge trade deficits, the long-term trend of manufacturing decline, and, of course, the recession contributed to the sense that America desperately needed to get its house in order.

Ross Perot, a quirky Texas billionaire, tapped into that anxiety perfectly. Western, pro-business, no-nonsense, pro-choice and pro-gun, culturally conservative but with little interest in culture-war issues, he managed to thread the needle between both parties. He also benefited enormously from the fact that his independent bid for the presidency was seen by the press as an indictment of both the incumbent Republican and the "Reagan deficits" that Democrats and the media had been denouncing for years. At one point, Perot led in the polls, and if he hadn't dropped out and then rejoined (or had he not been so Yosemite Sam-goofy), he might have done even better than his historic 19 percent of the popular vote.

It's still debated whether Perot cost Bush the election. But even if Clinton would have won regardless, Perot's candidacy had an underappreciated significance. He forced Clinton to double-down on his "New Democrat" appeals. Clinton had already fashioned himself as a "different kind of Democrat" who would "end welfare as we know it." But the Perotista revolt of "raging moderates" and "angry centrists" reinforced Clinton's rhetorical commitments and the voters' expectations.

No you meathead, Perot most certainly cost Bush the election and gave it to Clinton. Perot neatly destroyed the Reaganite coalition and allowed Clinton a pretty easy victory, despite our HOOAH asskicking in Iraq in 1990.

But what wrecked Bush was, well, Bush. "No new taxes" certainly hurt but the realization that Reaganomics was a flop really hurt him. What in turn hurt Clinton was failure to pass health care in 1993. Nice to see Jonah gloss over Clinton's first two years and go straight to Triangulatin' Action Clinton.

But glossing over what history he doesn't agree with it par for Jonah's course there, just like the fact that Americans still hate Republicans now, and that the Peronistas hate the Republicans even more than they hate the Dems.

It's not the Dems are going to get wiped, but any semblance of moderation from the remaining GOP candidates.