Identity Crisis

As BooMan notes, where Republicans are definitely losing folks on the party identification question, these folks are switching to independent, not Democratic, and in the long run that's not good for the Donks.

(More after the jump.)

In many polls, the GOP has reached historic lows, with the movement mainly going to either 'independent' or 'undecided.' It's very clear that the GOP is effectively purging their ranks of moderates, and that is making the independent and undecided pools larger and more conservative. The Democratic pool has remained fairly flat. So, while we need not lose any sleep over a rightward drift in independent opinion, we do have to worry about the Democrats' failure to win over any of these disaffected Republicans, and we have to worry about differential enthusiasm among the respective party bases. The turnout model of the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races would be a disaster if repeated in the midterms.
Despite activist grumbling, there isn't much evidence in the polling that Democrats are turning against the party or the president. Rather, there is plenty of evidence that the GOP is doing lasting damage to itself with their extremism. But that isn't translating into bad polling numbers for individual Republican candidates, and it didn't translate into good outcomes in this month's elections.
Getting Democrats excited is part of the solution. But, capturing some of the disaffected Republican vote is another. Since these two goals are hard to reconcile, it's no wonder the party on Capitol Hill seems paralyzed over health care, climate, immigration, and foreign policy.

In other words, what's good for the Dems' base isn't necessarily good for disaffected moderate voters, and if these moderates decide to go with the Republican candidate, then the Dems will be in trouble in 2010.
The issue then is will disaffected moderates decide to go with Democrats, Republicans, or neither?
Options one and three favor the Democrats taking action on health care, climate change, immigration and education legislation, as well as more stimulus and job issues. If it's option two however, the Dems will be in real trouble in purple districts. The reason why I'm not terribly worried is that at least into 2010, I think the Hoffman Effect will depress moderates from voting for, well, anyone. That means low turnout, and that means exciting the Democratic base by passing legislation that will get them to turn out. Low turnout traditionally favors Republicans, but then it becomes even more important to get traditional Dems out there to vote, and to do that, Dems will need to get things passed.
I also think there's room for Obama to start picking up more moderates by formulating a withdrawal plan on Afghanistan, and laying down the law on Wall Street. Not silly populist salary caps and punitive tax measures, but real, meaningful reform that will prevent future bailouts. I think if the President can take real steps on dealing with the economy and Afghanistan, he can win back the drifting middle.