Coming Apart At The Seams

The civil war in the Republican Party continues as the Teabaggers and GOP insiders are slugging it out for control of the party heading into November's elections.  The disagreement is over Sarah Palin, America's favorite moose-shaped lightning rod.

A poll of GOP insiders suggests that ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has little support among the party's professional class -- and maybe that's just how she wants it.

In a survey of 109 party leaders, political professionals and pundits, Palin finished 5th on the list of candidates most likely to win the party's '12 WH nomination.

Mittster came in first, by the way.  Moose Lady?  Fifth behind Tim Pawlenty, John Thune and Haley Barbour.  Tied with Mitch Daniels of Indiana.  As in "Don't call us, we won't call you."

(More after the jump...)

Nate Silver figures that's exactly how Moose Lady will split the party.

I've written extensive commentary about how I think Palin's chances are in fact pretty decent. I'd probably call her the "favorite", although "favorite" in this context might mean having a 25-30 percent chance of winning. From my list of ten bullet points, this one stands out as the most important:

8. Attempts by the Republican Establishment to neuter her may backfire. This is a corollary of #6 ["She's tough to campaign against"] above. If the Establishment, owing to electability concerns or whatever else, tries to put hurdles in her way by re-structuring the primary or delegate allocation process, it may only play into the victimization complex of Palin and her supporters.

2010/12 is shaping up to be an anti-Establishment cycle. The Republican Establishment is not popular, to a large extent even within their own party, and certainly not among "conservatives" more broadly, only 55 percent of whom have a favorable image of the G.O.P.

Palin is skipping the nearly required CPAC conference next month for the Tea Party Convention instead.  The move seems to indicate that the entire GOP insider establishment is on the outs with the Teabaggers and Birthers.  The GOP keeps saying "We're listening!"  The Teabaggers are increasingly saying "We don't care."

So why is the establishment so unpopular with conservatives?  It's not like they're going to vote for the Dems or anything.  Part of it has to do with RNC Chairman Michael Steele, who is starting to come under heavy fire for his lack of leadership.

Republican aides in the House and Senate have had enough of RNC chair Michael Steele's big mouth, according to a new report from inside a closed GOP conference call. Aides on the Hill are upset with Steele's repeated controversial interviews in the press and his recent comments that Republicans may not be "ready to lead."

Reid Wilson gets the scoop on a tense daily press call with RNC staff, reporting that one angry aide called Steele a "fool" and another told RNC press staff, "you really need to have him be quiet." The aides told RNC staff Steele was "ruining what should be several days of glowing press for the GOP" after a string of high-profile Democratic retirements.

And the one thing both the GOP insiders and the Teabaggers agree on is that Steele needs to go.  For his part, Steele is daring the GOP to fire him.

I'm think he'll get his wish soon.  The GOP is quickly sliding into two armed camps, as I've been saying they would for several months now.  This is the main reason why if the Democrats play it smart, they can come out stronger than before.