Foreclosures probably will reach 3 million this year, surpassing the record of 2.82 million in 2009, according to Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac Inc. That would more than offset an estimated 448,000-unit rise in home sales, based on the average forecast of the National Association of Realtors, the Mortgage Bankers Association and Fannie Mae.Oh yeah. That whole "second half of the recession where a jobless recovery knocks us into another downturn in an already broken economy, resulting in an economic depression" thing. That.
The housing industry remains a challenge for Obama as he enters his second year of office and government assistance programs near expiration. Data this week showed home sales tumbled after the expected end of an $8,000 tax credit for first-time buyers boosted transactions the prior month.
“The housing market is still on life support, and if government measures are withdrawn too quickly it could sink it, taking the economy down with it,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania. “Households have such high debt loads, in addition to their mortgages, that any reduction in income, including a job loss, could trigger a foreclosure.”
Employers have cut more than 7 million jobs in the last two years, the biggest employment loss since the Great Depression. The U.S. jobless rate probably will average 10 percent in 2010, according to the median estimate of 59 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. That would be the highest yearly rate in government records dating to 1948. Unemployment was 9.3 percent in 2009, the most in 26 years.
Yeah, that may be a problem. Even more than a jobs bill and health care reform, we need cramdown legislation. Now. Immediately if not sooner.
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