Get It In Gear

Friday's PPP poll was apparently just the thing Dems needed to stop taking a Martha Coakley victory for the MA Senate race for granted.  Just got this e-mail from Obama's volunteer director, Mitch Stewart:

There's a special election for U.S. Senate in Massachusetts in just over a week -- and it could decide the fate of health reform.

Progressive champion and state Attorney General Martha Coakley is running against a right-wing Republican, who has already promised to "force" reform "back to the drawing board" if elected.

While the large majority of Massachusetts voters support Martha, special elections often have very low turnout and are notoriously unpredictable. And the same guys behind the Swift Boat ads are now smearing her with hundreds of thousands of dollars in attack ads. The election may end up being very, very close.

It comes down to this: If Martha wins, we'll be in great shape to pass health reform. If we lose a vote for reform in the Senate, the path will be much more challenging. Wherever you live, if reform matters to you, then this race matters.

So Obama and the White House are taking this seriously now, and that's for the best.  Some of the best analysis of the race actually comes from Rightwing Nuthouse's Rick Moran:

I think it entirely possible that Brown is surging, buoyed by the growing realization that he could pull off the upset. He certainly has gotten a lot of positive press since those Rasmussen numbers have come out and for the 53% of Massachusetts voters who say they are following the election closely, that may have had an effect.

But is Brown really only a point behind? Massachusetts, like New Jersey and other heavily Democratic states, usually show a close race in the week or 10 days just prior to the election. But in the final 72 hours, a lot of Democrats start coming home and since in MA, registration for Dems outnumber Republicans by 3 to 1, that one point difference may indeed be a mirage.

There are several things going for Brown that might upset the conventional wisdom this time around - not the least of which is a powerful anti-health care reform sentiment as well as an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans.

But make no mistake - it is still an uphill battle for Brown. In this most Democratic of states, a Republican needs to be over 50% in the polls on election day to have a chance. And in neither of these new polls is Brown reached that milestone.

I agree with Rick here.  It matters who turns out on Tuesday, and the fact of the matter is Massachusetts is about the bluest blue state in the nation.  Coakley will win, but she will have to take this last week treating Brown as being a deadly serious threat instead of an also-ran.