Just A Question Of How Many They Lose

Nate Silver's new Senate rankings show a deadly grim picture for the Dems, with almost zero chance of any Democratic pickups outside of the five open Republican seats, and a lot of Dem carnage much more likely.

Right now, the program is showing that Democrats will retain an average of 54.7 seats in the 112th Congress. The distribution, however, is slightly asymmetrical, so the median number is 54, and the modal number is 53.

And things could, potentially, get a whole lot worse than that; the program recognizes that the outcome of the different races are correlated based on changes in the national environment. Between the surprise in Massachusetts, and races like California and Indiana which are potentially coming into play, there's about a 6-7 percent chance that Republicans could actually take control of the Senate, and another 6 percent chance or so that they could wind up with a 50-50 split. On the other hand, there's still a 7-8 percent chance that the Democrats could regain their 60th seat if the national environment shifts back in their direction.

Not good odds, especially if you factor in the very real possibility that Evan Bayh, Ben Nelson and Joe Lieberman especially could jump parties/caucuses if the Republicans pick up 7 more seats, and Bayh's seat is frankly in real play now by itself.  Nate's top seven flips are all Dem seats, followed by the open Missouri seat that the Republicans are defending and then Bayh's seat.  If all of those break the GOP's way, that's 51-49 Dems, and Joe Lieberman and Ben Nelson looking for the exits.


Even Barbara Boxer and Russ Feingold's seats are in play according to Nate.  Knocking out those guys and defending all 5 open seats would be a hell of an order for the GOP.   But it would give them 51 seats.


Scott Brown has changed the math, whether I like it or not.  And the Dems are on the verge of simply surrendering anyway.