CNN's Ed Henry notes the White House is headfaking on Coakley.
I'm going with "scaring the base." I still think Coakley will win solidly. High turnout favors her...but this is a special election in the dead of winter here.
Having said that, Brown's only real chance of winning was this election being under the radar with a dismal turnout among Dems who took for granted a Coakley victory. That's no longer the case. The scenario still strongly favors the Democrat in this scenario.
I just don't see people turning out in droves to give this to Brown.
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From a comment I made on kos that sums up my assessment of the race:
This [the idea that momentum is shifting in Coakley's favor] makes sense with a lot of the speculation I have read about Obama choosing to appear, his appearance means they are taking this race seriously... but also that the seat can be won. It nationalizes the election, makes it a re-referendum on the HCR policies and strengthens his hand (through even a modest win now) for work going forward.
At any rate, if you think you can win this race by 5+ points then Obama coming here means he wants this race turned into a renewal of his mandate. Otherwise he is hoping to get Coakley through by the skin of her teeth. In either case this is just good politics to campaign this hard.
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