Run Into The Mystic Night

The first post-Scott Brown Dem retirement will be made official today, Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry is hanging it up after 14 years.

The field to replace Berry isn't yet set although Democrats mentioned include state Rep. Keith Ingram, Berry chief of staff Chad Causey and Jason Willett, a former state party chair. State Attorney General Dustin McDaniel (D) is regarded as a rising star in the state and would be a favorite if he ran. On the Republican side, broadcaster Rick Crawford is in the race although the field is likely to expand with the Berry announcement.

Berry joins Snyder as well as Reps. Dennis Moore (Kans.), John Tanner (Tenn.), Brian Baird (Wash.) and Bart Gordon (Tenn.) as Members sitting in districts either won by McCain or carried narrowly by President Obama to step aside between the end of November and today.

Democratic strategists warned privately that a Coakley loss could open the floodgates for members who were wavering about their future political plans. Including Berry, there are now 12 Democratic members retiring with 14 Republicans calling it quits.

The next two weeks could well serve as a tipping point in the battle for House control. Today there appear to be too few open Democratic seats for Republican to win the 40 seats they need to take control. But, another handful of retirements in swing districts could imperil Democrats hold on the chamber.

Again, two weeks ago I would have said the Dems would certainly hold the House and Senate.  Now?  Not even I'm willing to go that far anymore, especially since there's no indication that health care reform will be passed right now.  It's entirely possible that we're heading for a situation where Republicans and independent voters are looking to throw everyone out, and Democrats are too angry or disappointed to vote.   The result may be a Republican House next year, and even a Republican Senate.

I wasn't worried about 2010 a few months ago.  Now I am.