Moose Tracks To Victory

Nate Silver games out the numbers on how Moose Lady could win the GOP presidential nomination in 2012, helpfully color-coding states into primary voting groups and coming up with three paths to the top:

Palin's path to victory, then, would seem to consist of one of the following scenarios:

Palin Plan A. Win Iowa. Win South Carolina. Clean up in orange states. You probably have enough momentum to survive the consolidation of the GOP field which is liable to occur at this point.

Palin Plan B. Lose Iowa narrowly, especially to a Midwestern candidate. Hope that a Southerner isn't running strongly and win South Carolina. Clean up in orange states. Then you anchor in the South, winning Texas (green group), Florida/Georgia (gold group) or Indiana/North Carolina (purple group). At some point, you need to break through and win a big Midwestern battleground like Ohio or Wisconsin.

Palin Plan C. Win Iowa. Lose South Carolina narrowly to a Southern candidate. Regain momentum in orange states. Hope that green states vote next and aim in particular for a big win in Texas. If it's the gold states instead, go all-in in Ohio and Pennsylvania. If it's the purple states, you'll need some help.

Weird, but doable.  On the other hand, BooMan thinks Nate's full of moose poop on the basic assumption that Palin's a credible candidate.

Nate Silver is awesome. I love him for doing first-rate progressive analysis. His piece on Palin's chances of winning the Republican nomination is very impressive and convincing on the merits. But I just don't think Palin has the work ethic to run a successful presidential campaign. Set aside what we already know about her (attending like six colleges before getting a degree, quitting in the middle of her term as governor). We just got through watching Obama and Hillary go toe to toe for two years. All those visits to Iowa and New Hampshire and Vegas and Elko and everywhere else...all those chicken dinners...appearances before political interest groups...fundraisers...20 debates...

 

I simply do not believe that you can win the nomination without doing most of those things. You need a relentless drive. Celebrity alone won't do it for you. And Palin will never do most (and certainly not all) of those things. She's making good money doing nothing right now, which is such a sweet gig that only someone even more foolish than Palin would give it up to do the primary grind.

I'm happy to be wrong. But I cannot envision Palin winning a single primary. It's not because she doesn't have a lot of support in the Republican Party. It's because she'd never make it to election day in Iowa without alienating everyone with her laziness and lack of respect. 

It's also worth noting that on a day where Dean Broder thinks Sarah Palin is the Most Bestest Candidate Ever, a new poll shows she doesn't have a snowball's chance up a moose's ass.

Although Palin is a tea party favorite, her potential as a presidential hopeful takes a severe hit in the survey. Fifty-five percent of Americans have unfavorable views of her, while the percentage holding favorable views has dipped to 37, a new low in Post-ABC polling.


There is a growing sense that the former Alaska governor is not qualified to serve as president, with more than seven in 10 Americans now saying she is unqualified, up from 60 percent in a November survey. Even among Republicans, a majority now say Palin lacks the qualifications necessary for the White House. 

It's hysterical.  Villagers seem to think Sarah Palin is the voice of the people.  The people on the other hand think she's a complete moron.