The Republican Exodus Continues

Facing stiff primary challenges from Teabaggers and an electorate that still despises the Party of No, Republicans are bolting from Congress at an even higher rate than Democrats.  The latest Republican to throw the towel in is expected to be Michigan's Vern Ehlers this morning.  Hotline:

A press release from Ehler's office says the presser "follow[s] speculation about his plans to continue serving" in the House. Several GOP sources tell Hotline OnCall his wife had a heart attack last week, further lending credence to speculation he will step aside.

The 2/10 announcement will come a day after state Rep. Justin Amash (R) announced a primary challenge to Ehlers.

This Grand Rapids-based seat, under the right circumstances, is a potential pickup opportunity for Dems. In the '08 Dem wave, and with the GOP virtually conceding MI, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) eked out a 49%-49% win over Pres. Obama. But in much better times for the GOP in '04, George W. Bush won a comfortable 59-40% win over Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). The current enviro., both nationally and in MI, indicate that GOPers should be in a much safer place to hold this open seat. Ehlers, meanwhile, has never won with less than 61%.

Besides Amash, a GOP source names state Sen. Bill Hardiman (R) as a potential candidate. Hardiman, an African-American, represents a Grand Rapids-based seat in the Legislature, and was former mayor of Kentwood.

Ehlers will be the 17th House GOPer to announce plans not to run for re-election, compared to 11 Dems who have done the same.

It's that last sentence that's the shocker.  If you were really expecting to be swept back into power and to take control of the House and Senate in November, would you be retiring at a higher rate than the supposedly doomed Democrats?

Republicans are getting pummeled by Teabaggers from the right.  The Hoffman Effect is growing, giving more and more Democrats the chance to limit the damage in 2010 as more and more House districts will have to choose between a moderate Democrat and a raving Birther lunatic.  Independents are angry at the Dems for not delivering, but they're not about to go put even more partisan Republicans into office, either.

This is why I believe the Dems will keep the House and Senate in 2010.  Realistically the Dems had such a big margin that they can afford to lose 25 or 30 seats and still maintain control.

And the Republicans in the House aren't buying the hype.  In a realm where incumbents win big usually, ten percent of them have already retired on the red side.

Not even the GOP thinks it'll take back anything this year.