The Comeback Kids

Across the river in Ohio, the Dems are making headway in the latest Quinnipiac University poll.

Democrats are having a mini-surge in Ohio as two possible candidates for the open U.S. Senate seat have come from behind to pass the Republican contender, and Gov. Ted Strickland remains ahead of Republican challenger John Kasich, 43 - 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

And President Barack Obama's job approval is up from a negative 44 - 52 percent February 23 to an almost even 47 - 48 percent today, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University poll finds.

In the Senate race, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher leads Republican Rob Portman 41 - 37 percent, reversing a 40 - 37 percent Portman lead February 24. Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner edges Portman 38 - 37 percent, reversing a 40 - 35 percent Republican lead.

Although Ohioans remain opposed to President Obama's health care plan, the margin is down from a 55 - 36 percent disapproval in November to a 50 - 43 percent thumbs down today. But voters say 38 - 25 percent they are more likely to vote against their congressman if he or she voted for the Obama plan.

"Perhaps it's the passage of the health care overhaul and the fact that people like being with a winner: There has been a small, but consistent movement toward Democratic candidates and causes in Ohio in the last month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Whether this is the beginning of a long-term move or not won't be clear for some time, perhaps until November."

Ohio's still a swing state, so this makes sense.  You don't expect the state to remain heavily blue or heavily red for very long, and when it does go in one direction like it did in 2008, 2009 saw a big swing towards Republicans Kasich and Portman.  Now in 2010, the momentum has swung back to the Democrats.  Ohio politics is like Ohio weather:  give it a little time and it will change.

Obama's -8 approval rating differential was held up as the doom of the party this year, but anyone who's been paying attention to the Buckeye State knew that wasn't going to last.  Ohioans do indeed appreciate a winner who can get things done.  People still more or less split evenly on the guy here.

Of course, how long THAT will last is anyone's guess.  My guess is Obama will have to continue getting things done in order to keep that momentum going, and the GOP will be doing everything they can to stop him cold.  If no more legislation gets passed in 2010, Ohio will put the blame squarely on Obama's shoulders and not the GOP.  The places hurting the most in Ohio's 10.9% unemployment rate are the Rust Belt urban centers where labor and the Dems have always done well.  If they're still hurting in November, it's going to be tough for Gov. Strickland to keep his job.  If the jobless numbers are going down and Strickland is making an effort to fix the problem, Ohioans will probably give him another chance.

Enough people around here still remember John Kasich and aren't terribly fond of the guy.