Just Ras-Messin With Obama On HCR

Scott Rasmussen takes to the WSJ editorial pages (natch) to lecture Obama on why he can't "move the numbers" on health care reform public opinion.  Rasmussen for once is correct.

Why can't the president move the numbers? One reason may be that he keeps talking about details of the proposal while voters are looking at the issue in a broader context. Polling conducted earlier this week shows that 57% of voters believe that passage of the legislation would hurt the economy, while only 25% believe it would help. That makes sense in a nation where most voters believe that increases in government spending are bad for the economy.

When the president responds that the plan is deficit neutral, he runs into a pair of basic problems. The first is that voters think reducing spending is more important than reducing the deficit. So a plan that is deficit neutral with a big spending hike is not going to be well received.

But the bigger problem is that people simply don't trust the official projections. People in Washington may live and die by the pronouncements of the Congressional Budget Office, but 81% of voters say it's likely the plan will end up costing more than projected. Only 10% say the official numbers are likely to be on target.
As a result, 66% of voters believe passage of the president's plan will lead to higher deficits and 78% say it's at least somewhat likely to mean higher middle-class taxes. Even within the president's own political party there are concerns on these fronts.

A plurality of Democrats believe the health-care plan will increase the deficit and a majority say it will likely mean higher middle-class taxes. At a time when voters say that reducing the deficit is a higher priority than health-care reform, these numbers are hard to ignore.

The proposed increase in government spending creates problems for advocates of reform beyond the perceived impact on deficits and the economy. Fifty-nine percent of voters say that the biggest problem with the health-care system is the cost: They want reform that will bring down the cost of care. For these voters, the notion that you need to spend an additional trillion dollars doesn't make sense. If the program is supposed to save money, why does it cost anything at all?

On top of that, most voters expect that passage of the congressional plan will increase the cost of care at the same time it drives up government spending. Only 17% now believe it will reduce the cost of care.

The final piece of the puzzle is that the overwhelming majority of voters have insurance coverage, and 76% rate their own coverage as good or excellent. Half of these voters say it's likely that if the congressional health bill becomes law, they would be forced to switch insurance coverage—a prospect hardly anyone ever relishes. These numbers have barely moved for months: Nothing the president has said has reassured people on this point.

The reason President Obama can't move the numbers and build public support is because the fundamentals are stacked against him. Most voters believe the current plan will harm the economy, cost more than projected, raise the cost of care, and lead to higher middle-class taxes. 

Now, the real journalist here (and the dutiful, curious pollster) would immediately delve into the actual question behind that final, bolded sentence there.  Most Americans really do believe one or more of those listed statements about the current health care reform legislation.  The question of course is why do they believe that?

The problem is that from the beginning, these have been the GOP talking points about health care reform, and the American people believe them overwhelmingly at this point.   Americans have developed such a virulent distrust of government over the last 30 years that Obama and the Dems have been crippled by it.

Rasmussen lays out the beliefs one at a time.  We've been trained by the Village to believe that there's absolutely nothing that the government can do correctly.  I was born in 1975.  For my entire life, I've lived in an America where the Federal government has been considered bloated, inefficient, corrupt, and even actually evil when it perform even the most basic acts of governance.  My parents came of age during Vietnam and Watergate.  There's a reason why nobody under the age of sixty trusts the government in this country.

It is unfortunate.  We need government, frankly.  But we've gotten to the point now where it has been so crippled by the last 30 years that it can't function well, and all that does is cause the people to demand it be dismantled.  What we need is an example of goverment that works. 

Unfortunately, government that works does so quietly and on a daily basis.  That's never news to the Village or to the Republicans.  So yes, right now 40 to 50% of Americans would be against ANY health care reform plan.  The Republicans have done an admirable job of winning the public opinion fight.

And yet, the bill still has gotten very close to the finish line anyway.  Obama should be commended for that fight.  It never should have gotten this far, given the institutional opposition.

But will it get over the finish line?