One To Go, All To Keep

Hotline On-Call has done their own whip count in the House and finds that Nancy Pelosi is literally one vote shy of the 216 she needs right now to get the Senate bill through the House...and that's before Bark Stupak makes good on his threat.

A reminder of where we stand now: Health care legislation passed by a 220-215 margin on Nov. 7. Since then, Reps. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI), Robert Wexler (D-FL) and Eric Massa (D-NY) have resigned. Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) passed away. Of that group, Abercrombie, Wexler and Murtha voted in favor. Massa voted against. Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA), who voted for the bill, has said he will vote against.

That means Pelosi has lost 4 votes, bringing her to 216. Because there are only 431 members of the House, thanks to the vacancies, Pelosi needs exactly that number to pass reform. Arcuri's decision today brings the number of yes votes down to 215 -- one below the number needed to pass.

Enter Stupak, who claims to have a dozen total votes against the bill if abortion language remains the same. For each member Stupak has convinced to switch their vote, Dems will need to convince another "no" voter to vote yes the second time around.

So now the arm twisting begins, and Pelosi starts out at -1.  Stupak claims he has 12 more no votes in his pocket, but lately he's made noises like he's coming around.  Steve Benen:

Stupak, of course, is threatening to kill the legislation over indirect, circuitous funding of abortion, and claims to lead a bloc of a dozen House Dems who oppose abortion rights. Last week, taking his threats seriously, Democratic leaders began engaging Stupak in earnest, trying to find a way to resolve the impasse.
As of late yesterday, things were looking up.

[Stupak] said he expects to resume talks with House leaders this week in a quest for wording that would impose no new limits on abortion rights but also would not allow use of federal money for the procedure.
"I'm more optimistic than I was a week ago," Stupak told The Associated Press between meetings with constituents in his northern Michigan district, including a crowded town hall gathering where opinions on health care and the abortion issue were plentiful and varied.

There's a certain oddity to the dispute. Generally, when there's a disagreement like this, we see two sides that want to go in different directions, trying to find some areas of common ground. In this case, both sides claim to want the same thing: maintain the status quo as it relates to abortion funding.

And that could be enough to keep Stupak from blowing a hole in this and being vilified by his own party over this, not to mention the fact that he's already being targeted by women's health groups.  Clearly being compared to Republican neanderthals on women's health issues is taking a toll on Stupak.

But that still leaves Pelosi one short with a week to go before the deadline.