Primary Impetus

The May 4th primaries are next Tuesday for Ohio and Indiana, and there's a lot at stake for both states as the Senate races to replace the retiring Evan Bayh in Indiana and George Voinovich in Ohio may become pickup opportunities for both parties that could cancel each other out.  Evan-McMorris-Santoro handicaps both states, starting with Indiana:

Probably the most closely-watched race on May 4 will be the GOP Senate primary. When Sen. Evan Bayh (D) announced his retirement in February, it suddenly got much easier for Republicans to pickup his seat. Most expect the national party choice, former Sen. Dan Coats, to win the GOP nomination handily -- though state Sen. Marlin Stutzman has been making waves of late with an endorsement from tea party favorite Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). Former Rep. John Hostettler is also a factor, having earned the endorsement of another fringe Republican favorite, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX).

The Democrats already have their man in the race: Rep. Brad Ellsworth. He's got Bayh's support and has been running hard for the seat for months. But polls show he's in trouble in a general election matchup so far.

The TPM Poll Average for a race against Coats shows the Republican ahead by a margin of 46.5-33.8.

Race ratings (general election):
CQ: Leans Republican, Washington Post: Toss up, Cook Report: Leans Republican

Meanwhile in Ohio:

It's another open seat in Ohio, where incumbent Sen. George Voinovich (R) is retiring. This time, the Democratic primary is the one to watch: Progressives are fired up about Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, though most predict the winner of the primary will be Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher.

Brunner's supporters are loud, vocal and promise an upset win, but Brunner has struggled with fundraising and trails Fisher in the polls. The TPM Poll Average for the Democratic primary shows Fisher ahead by a margin of 31.8-23.0.

Meanwhile, Republicans feel good about their nominee. Former Rep. Rob Portman has built a considerable campaign war chest and has had the advantage of running alone while Fisher and Brunner duke things out on the Democratic side. But the general election matchup is very much up for grabs. The TPM Poll Average of a Portman-Fisher race shows a dead heat, with Fisher just slightly ahead by a margin of 40.5-39.2. It's the same story with Brunner. The TPM Poll Average of that potential mathchup shows Portman ahead by a margin of just 39.6-39.3.

Race ratings (general election):
CQ: Tossup, Washington Post: Tossup, Cook Report: Tossup

So there's actually a pretty good chance a Dem pickup in Ohio will be offset by a Republican taking Indiana.  However, I wouldn't count either side out.  It's going to be close, and these races (along with Kentucky) will help determine which party will prevail in 2010 when it comes to picking up open seats, and the overwhelming anti-incumbent sentiment is not a factor.  My gut says that out of Indiana, Ohio, and Kentucky's open Senate seats that the GOP will take 2 of 3, and that one of those two will unfortunately be Rand Paul.

I could be wrong.  I hope I am.