When Statisticians Attack!

Nate Silver investigates the claim that stimulus money was doled out based on partisan politics, and finds out the real method used to disperse the funds.

The district that received the largest amount of stimulus funding in the 4th Quarter of 2009, according to de Rugy's tally, is California's 5th Congressional District. Is there anything notable about the 5th Congressional? Well, it is home to the state capital, Sacramento. Let's keep that in mind.

Next on the list is New York's 21st Congressional District. The largest city in the 21st is the state capital of New York, Albany.

Third is the 21st Congressional District of Texas. It contains parts of Texas' state capital, the wonderful city of Austin. (Another district that contains parts of Austin -- the 25th -- ranks 14th on de Rugy's list.)

At this point, it ought to be pretty obvious what is going on. The three districts receiving the largest amount of stimulus funds are home to the capitals of the three largest states -- New York, California, and Texas. Let's pause for a moment and make a bold prediction. I'll bet you that the district that ranks 4th on the list will contain the capital of the 4th largest state, Florida.

Bingo. Up 4th on the list is Florida's 2nd Congressional, home to Tallahassee.

Fifth is Pennsylvania's 17th, which hosts the state capital, Harrisburg.

The sixth through tenth districts contain the capital cities of other large states: Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, Illinois and New Jersey, respectively. They are followed by districts that include the state capitals of Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia -- then another part of Austin, Texas -- then Arizona, Missouri, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Finally, in 19th place is South Carolina's 3rd Congressional District, which does not host a state capital. (Ironically, it has elected a Republican -- J. Gresham Barrett -- to the Congress).

There's also one more thing the state capital-containing congressional districts of the largest states in the country have in common: they're mostly heavily concentrated urban centers with lots of minorities who vote for the Democratic party.

Giving most of the money to the state capitals and the state agencies around them makes sense, doesn't it? This of course was used to give rise to the claim that "73% of stimulus funds went to Democratic districts".

Correlation does not equal causation, people. But it sure didn't stop the Wingers from grabbing this one this week and running with it as yet another reason to attack Obama.

Of course, when did facts ever slow Wingers down?

Veronique de Rugy, author of the study, at least comes clean and apologizes to Nate for missing the obvious. But I wonder how far this lie will travel while Nate's much more coherent explanation is still getting its boots on?