Pineapple Upside-Down Cake

Looks like the Republicans are eagerly looking forward to picking up Hawaii's House seat in the special election, and ironically it's the mirror image of NY-23, where is this case the Democratic vote is split by two candidates, and the Republican, Charles Djou, is looking for victory in a three-way race.  Dave Weigel:

Beyond the Democratic bumbling that has led to former congressman Ed Case and state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa duking it out, splitting the vote, we've seen another very effective grass-roots conservative campaign, another successful push by right-leaning Web gurus to make this race exciting to the party's national base.


First, activists raised the emotional stakes by calling the district "Obama's home district." (He was born in Honolulu.) Just like Scott Brown was able to excite conservatives with the prospect of "taking Ted Kennedy's seat," Djou has dangled the possibility of an embarrassment for the president -- something that makes the otherwise modest goal of shrinking the Democrats' majority by one seat sound more enticing. Do a search on Twitter for "obamadistrict" and check out how many conservatives embrace the frame. (A lot of the credit here goes to Republican consultant Patrick Ruffini, who's also organized blogger conference calls for Djou.)

Second, activists rallied when Djou was attacked -- especially D.C. activists. Last month the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee tried to raise Djou's negatives by arguing that his signature on Americans for Tax Reform's pledge meant he'd honored a "special interest group" to protect tax breaks for evil corporations. ATR punched back immediately and nonpartisan groups fact-checked the ad, finding it wanting. (And I'm told that the many D.C. groups that try to get GOP candidates to sign their pledges are on notice to behave the same way when one of those candidates get hit.)

In other words, while Hanabusa and Case and going after each other, Djou is cruising towards a win that could very well turn solid blue Hawaii towards a purple state in 2010.  It's really not looking good here, and it's a reminder to myself and the Democrats that the Hoffman Effect is not limited to just the Republicans when it comes to brutal primary fights that lose the party the general election.