More Primary Impetus

Primary voters will take to the polls Tuesday in Alabama, Mississippi and New Mexico.  TPM has the races to watch, but here are my three:

AL-02: Three Republicans are competing to take on freshman Rep. Bobby Bright, a conservative Blue Dog Democrat who has voted against many parts of the national Democratic agenda. The three main candidates are Montgomery City Councilwoman Martha Roby -- an NRCC "Young Gun" candidate, representing a top tier of national GOP endorsement -- state Board of Education member Stephanie Bell and businessman and Tea Party activist Rick Barber. The district voted 63%-37% for John McCain in 2008.

This one's important because you have NRCC candidate Martha Roby going up against Tea Party candidate Rick Barber.  The GOP leadership is firmly behind Roby.  But the Tea Party grassroots anger is firmly behind Barber.  Bell is the wild card, so anything could happen here.

MS-01: Three Republicans are competing to go up against Blue Dog Democratic Rep. Travis Childers, who was first elected in a May 2008 special election. The three candidates are the establishment-backed state Sen. Alan Nunnelee, former Europa Mayor and ex-Bush Administration Justice Department official Henry Ross, and Fox News commentator Angela McGlowan. The district voted 62%-37% for John McCain in 2008. As with Alabama, a candidate will need 50% of the vote to win outright.

McGlowan has the national FOX recognition and the tea Party cred, Ross has the local boy and Beltway pull, and Nunnelee has the state politics angle covered.  Again, any of the three of them could win.

NM Republican gubernatorial primary: Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson is term-limited, and Lt. Gov. Diane Denish is the presumptive Dem nominee. Five Republicans are competing for the GOP nomination: attorney Pete Domenici, Jr., a son of former Sen. Pete Domenici.; Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez; businessman and political activist Doug Turner; state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones; and businessman and former state GOP chair Allen Weh, who played a role in the firing of U.S. Attorney David Iglesias.

The TPM Poll Average gives Martinez 31.4%, Weh 25.4%, Domenici 13.8%, Turner 7.5%, and Arnold-Jones 3.1%.

Martinez is leading right now, but Weh has a lot of clout in the NM GOP.  It's going to be a close race.

The question here is will the GOP establishment-backed candidates win, or will the Tea Party folks upset the apple cart?  Is Dominici's name recognition in New Mexico really hurting him badly in 2010?  Can NRCC "Young Gun" Roby beat back her Tea Party challenger in Alabama?

Tuesday evening should be pretty interesting.