The Senate After

Although the Senate and the country will badly miss the late Sen. Robert Byrd, the reality is the business of the United States Senate must proceed, and the time to speak of who will serve out Byrd's term is now.  That decision will be made by West Virginia's Democratic Gov. Joe Manchin.  Reid Wilson charts the path ahead:

With Sen. Robert Byrd's (D-WV) passing this morning, his constituents are mourning the loss of their long-time champion. Someone new will soon fill Byrd's seat, but it will be impossible to replace a man who held his seat for 51 years.

WV law gives Gov. Joe Manchin (D) the power to appoint Byrd's replacement. If a vacancy occurs within 2 and a half years of the beginning of the next term, the governor appoints a replacement until that next election. But state law says an election must be called if a vacancy occurs more than 2 and a half years before a term expires. Byrd's term would have had 2 and a half years left as of next week -- July 3.

But a special election is unlikely. State law says Manchin's appointment will be valid "until a successor to the office has timely filed a certificate of candidacy, has been nominated at the primary election next following such timely filing and has thereafter been elected and qualified to fill the unexpired term."

The WV primary took place May 11, making it unlikely that a special election will take place this year. And odd-year elections, used in many states to pick local officials, are a rarity in WV. In recent years, voters went to the polls only in '05, when they voted on a constitutional amendment. No elections were held in '07, '03 or '01.

Because the primary has already occured, the next opportunity to "timely file" will be Jan. '12 -- when Byrd's seat would have come open anyway. A primary would follow in May, with a special election to be held in concurrence with a general election later that year.

There is settled case law on the point. In '94, Kanawha Co. Circuit Court Judge John Hey resigned in April. A local GOP party chairman sued then-Gov. Gaston Caperton (D) to try and compel a special election for the following Nov. The state Supreme Court, in Robb v. Caperton, ruled against the local party chairman and said Caperton's appointee would serve until the '96 election, when the office would have come up for election anyway.

With an election set for more than 2 years away, Manchin has the chance to pick a successor to hold Byrd's seat. It has been an open secret in the Mountineer State for years that Manchin covets a Senate seat, and his second term as the state's chief executive expires after the '12 elections -- meaning he could very likely appoint himself.

I would think that the odds would be very good for Manchin to pull the Senate Shuffle and end up in Byrd's seat.  Whether or not that's a good idea for the Dems, I have no idea.  However with the state's primary already passed, I would think that the election will most likely not be held until 2012...I just don't see the Republicans pushing too hard on this when the seat would got to Manchin anyway.