One report circulating among Democratic leaders on Capitol Hill last week estimated that more than $300 million has been budgeted for the campaign by a group of 15 conservative tax-exempt organizations.
"A commitment of $300 million from just 15 organizations is a huge amount, putting them in record territory for groups on the right or left," said Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks campaign contributions. "With control of Congress hanging in the balance, this kind of spending could have a major impact."
The money's power is magnified because it will be concentrated in a relatively small number of swing states and districts. Of the 435 House and 37 Senate seats at issue in November, about 100 House seats and 18 in the Senate are considered competitive.
The conservative fundraising commitment has stunned Democrats.
"It's raising the alarm bell," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which spent $177 million in all of 2008 for congressional races.
Labor unions and allied liberal groups also plan to spend heavily. The Service Employees International Union, for example, has budgeted $44 million on election-related spending this year.
But the momentum and the new money appear — at least at this moment — to be coming from business and its allies.
"What we are seeing is that major businesses and industries are taking advantage of the recent court ruling and favorable political environment," said Anthony J. Corrado Jr., a political scientist at Colby College in Maine and a leading expert on money and politics. "They are already committing substantially more money than they have in any previous election cycles."
Over the next couple of months you will see hundreds of millions -- if not a billion dollars or more -- thrown at swing districts in order to throw out as many Dems as possible. Republicans have blocked campaign finance reform laws like the DISCLOSE act, so these massive corporations can run commercials anonymously through the non-profits they create with their hundreds of millions. The Dems are simply not going to be able to compete, and that's the entire point.
Big Business plans to buy 2010's midterm elections. And there's basically nothing the Dems can do now to stop it.
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