Down In A Hole

Feeling so small...

How many House seats will the Republicans gain in 2010? To answer this question, we have run 1,000 simulations of the 2010 House elections. The simulations are based on information from past elections going back to 1946. Our methodology replicates that for our ultimately successful forecast of the 2006 midterm. Two weeks before Election Day in 2006, we posted a prediction that the Democrats would gain 32 seats and recapture the House majority. The Democrats gained 30 seats in 2006. Our current forecast for 2010 shows that the Republicans are likely to regain the House majority.

Our preliminary 2010 forecast will appear (with other forecasts by political scientists) in the October issue of PS: Political Science. By our reckoning, the most likely scenario is a Republican majority in the neighborhood of 229 seats versus 206 for the Democrats for a 50-seat loss for the Democrats. Taking into account the uncertainty in our model, the Republicans have a 79% chance of winning the House.

Good thing Dems backed down on jobs bills, additional stimulus, Wall Street reform, national immigration reform and climate legislation to accede to Republican demands in the name of bipartisan progress, because the voters sure are going to reward them for it...and what does that mean for America in 2011 with the GOP plan for "going forwards" and fixing the economy?

If President Barack Obama needed any more incentive to go all out for Democrats this fall, here it is: Republicans are planning a wave of committee investigations targeting the White House and Democratic allies if they win back the majority.

Everything from the microscopic — the New Black Panther party — to the massive –- think bailouts — is on the GOP to-do list, according to a half-dozen Republican aides interviewed by POLITICO. 

Won't this be fun?  Remember folks, Clinton tacked hard to the right, gave the GOP everything they wanted, repealed Glass-Steagall and balanced the budget during one of the biggest peacetime economic booms in American history.

The GOP responded by impeaching him anyway.

Imagine what they're going to do to Obama with a 10% unemployment rate.