A Flood Of Problems

Pakistan's record flooding is getting worse, and as Pakistan's government continues to be completely overwhelmed by the magnitude of the disaster affecting 20 million or more, elements of the Pakistani Taliban are stepping in to help where international aid from the west cannot.

A year after Congress passed $7.5 billion in aid to undercut the insurgents by strengthening Pakistan’s governance and economy, the worst floods in decades have destroyed more than $13 billion worth of crops, farms, railroads and towns along the country’s economic spine, Pakistani economists and officials say. Banned groups such as the Taliban and Jamaat ud- Dawa are giving food and tents to uprooted villagers in districts where they have battled police and soldiers.

“If the Pakistan government cannot repair roads and bridges to reconnect its cities, if it cannot put people back into homes and offer them some chance of a livelihood, the government will face its biggest political problem” in renewed radicalization, said Zafar Moin Nasser, director of research at the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, in the capital, Islamabad.

The 1,600-kilometer-long (1,000-mile) swath of destruction along the Indus River may cut Pakistan’s economic growth by 2.5 percentage points this year, Finance Secretary Salman Siddique said in a phone interview Aug. 13. As the U.S. is rushing $76 million in emergency relief to Pakistan, it also is re- evaluating the country’s long-term needs, State Department spokesman Philip Crowley told reporters Aug. 16.

The government won’t be able to prevent militants from providing relief work and winning public support, said Talat Masood, a political and security consultant in Islamabad. 

And that means potentially tens if not hundreds of thousands of new recruits for radical Islamist groups as international aid falters in this economy and the Pakistani government is paralyzed by inertia.

I think we're badly underestimating the magnitude of this flooding and the long-term effects it will have on the country.  Imagine if Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana and Kentucky were all wiped out due to massive flooding.  Some 40 million Americans in the flood zone for three weeks, and more rain on the way.  The government paralyzed by inaction, and the only people willing to help were extremist militia and anti-government groups that called themselves Christian.  Imagine some of these guys saved your family when the government wouldn't help.  You might see them a little differently, despite the fact that they are willing to bring down the government by force.

That's what is going on in Pakistan right now.  Unless the Pakistani government gets things together immediately, they may not be a Pakistani government.  And we're going to have some serious problems on our hands, and very, very soon.