After having declined for 4 months in a row, July foreclosure activity once again took a leg up, increasing by 4% from the prior month to 325,229 in July according to RealtyTrac. There was deterioration across all three foreclosures categories: default notices, foreclosures auctions and bank repossessions (REO). “July marked the 17th consecutive month with a foreclosure activity total exceeding 300,000,” said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac. “Declines in new default notices, which were down on a year-over-year basis for the sixth straight month in July, have been offset by near-record levels of bank repossessions, which increased on a year-over-year basis for the eighth straight month.” Of note is the ongoing increase in bank repossessions as banks seems increasingly less motivated to put foreclosed properties in auctions lists. Per RealtyTrac: "Lenders foreclosed on 92,858 U.S. properties in July, a 9 percent increase from the previous month and a 6 percent increase from July 2009. July’s bank repossession (REO) total was the second highest monthly total since RealtyTrac began tracking REO activity in April 2005 and was 1 percent below the monthly REO activity peak of 93,777 in May 2010."
We're now in a self-sustaining deflationary spiral. Foreclosures reduce demand, reduced demand leads to layoffs and cutbacks, and layoffs lead to more foreclosures. I also don't see any way to break out of this spiral anytime soon.
The latest Fed action to buy up some $300 billion in treasuries isn't going to help this problem at all. Obama's HAMP program has been a miserable and complete failure by all accounts, and as such we're now locked into deflationary ruin.
Drastic action by the Fed will be undertaken soon and I'm not sure if we'll make it to Election Day before it happens. I'm betting on it coming sooner rather than this winter. Keep an eye on the bond market.
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