Where We Go From Here

CalcRisk figures the real fun in the economy starts next Monday with the July existing home sales report:

The existing home sales report will show that sales collapsed in July (this is showing up in all the regional reports).

The existing home months-of-supply will jump to double digits.

House prices are probably falling again, although this might not show up in the repeat sales indexes until September or October (this data is released with a lag).

On August 27th, the second estimate of Q2 GDP will be released. This will probably show a significant downward revision from the preliminary estimate of 2.4% annualized growth. The downward revision is due to lower construction spending than the BEA initially estimated, less contribution from inventory adjustments, and the June surge in exports.

The unemployment rate will probably start ticking up again soon (or the participation rate will fall further).

In other words, between now and Labor Day, the numbers aren't going to be good and for all intents and purposes they are going to be strong indications we're heading for the second leg of this depression.  The ECRI has climbed up above the -10% mark to -9.8% last Friday, but the damage has already been done.  The spiral shows no signs of being broken, and the results are going to be catastrophic down the road.