The survey shows that among likely voters — based on their interest and past voting history — 49 percent prefer a Republican-controlled Congress while 40 percent want one run by Democrats. Among those expressing a high interest in voting, that GOP lead increases 18 points, 53 percent to 35 percent.
Among all registered voters, however, both parties are tied on the generic ballot, 43 percent to 43 percent, suggesting that Democrats could potentially blunt GOP gains in November with high turnout at the polls.
But right now, according to the poll, the interest level in the midterms is down among Democrats, African-Americans and younger Americans compared to 2006, when the Democratic Party won control of both the House and Senate.
If Democrats lose control of Congress, Hart argues, it’s “because they didn’t vote.”In other words, if turnout models hold true and Republican turnout is higher than normal for a midterm election, then the Democrats are in serious, serious trouble. If however turnout for the Democrats is increased, the damage can be contained.
Bob Cesca argues what this poll proves is that Democrats need a reason to turn out.
Two things need to happen, then. I think we need some red meat from the Democrats -- some juicy liberal legislation rocketing through Congress and the president on the stump pushing for it. And we also have a responsibility to generate some excitement ourselves. A movement is supposed to, you know, move. We can start here and go.The first thing's just not going to happen. What you're seeing this week is it. The second then is the way to go.
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