None of this is likely to save Democrats from having a rather poor November. But, it could make the difference between their losing around 55 seats in the House, which is about what you get if you look at the generic ballot and ignore all other indicators, or more like 40, which is about what you get when you look solely at local indicators and ignore the generic ballot. Our forecasting model, which looks at some combination of the two, now pegs’ Democratic losses at around 45 seats but with a large amount of uncertainty on either side of that estimate.
So instead of losing the House by 15 seats, the Dems lose it by a whisker...but still lose the House. Gosh, that's great news. Better get out there and vote, folks. The Republicans sure will.
It's the enthusiasm gap, stupid.
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