Ramblin' Rand

I didn't think that SurveyUSA poll showing Rand Paul with a 15-point lead was terribly accurate.  Yet another poll shows a much closer race, this time with Paul only having a 3 point lead.

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) and state Attorney General Jack Conway (D) are in a statistical tie in the Kentucky Senate race, according to a new survey conducted by a Democratic pollster.

Paul takes 48 percent to 45 percent for Conway in the poll, which was conducted for the Kentucky Leadership Council by John Anzalone.

The poll shows voters are concerned about Paul's public statements, including one in which he appeared to dismiss the state's problems with drugs. Neaely six in ten voters (59 percent) agreed that Paul "says things that bother and concern me."

The Anzalone poll contrasts sharply with a SurveyUSA poll released over the weekend, which had Paul leading 55 percent to 40 percent.

Conway's campaign also fought back on the SurveyUSA poll Tuesday, releasing a memo from its pollster, Pete Brodnitz, that suggests the voter model used by SurveyUSA was flawed.

The Benenson memo noted that Democrats have historically turned out 20 percent more voters than Republicans in the state, while SurveyUSA's model had them at just 5 percent more.

Kentucky, where Sen. Jim Bunning (R) is retiring, is regarded by Democrats as one of their top pickup opportunities on the ballot this fall.

So again, it depends on Kentucky Democrats getting out to vote for Conway.  It's all about turnout.  If the turnout follows the GOP "gloom and doom" model for the Dems then yes, Paul will walk off with an easy win.

If Dems actually show up to vote, Paul's in trouble.