A Real Kentucky Horse Race On Our Hands

Jack Conway is closer in the polls to Rand Paul than a lot of people think.  Greg Sargent:

Is the Kentucky Senate race much closer than everyone thinks?

An internal poll by respected pollster Benenson Strategy Group that was conducted for Dem Jack Conway's campaign and sent my way finds the race is a statistical tie, with Rand Paul leading 47-45, well within the margin of error.

Now, obviously you'll want to be cautious about internal polls. But this comes as the NRSC has gone up on the air in Kentucky with a new spot hammering Conway, perhaps a hint that the race is closer than we've been led to believe.

Rand Paul has done almost everything he can to blow this one.  Jack Conway is making this race very close and very winnable for the Democrats.

Several other public polls have shown Paul with a wide lead. But the Conway camp's internal polling memo by Benenson Strategy Group, or BSG, insists its own numbers are far more accurate:

The BSG poll was conducted using a sample of registered voters who were screened to ensure that they are likely to vote on Election Day.

Recently, a series of public polls have been released that either fail to interview registered voters (Rasmussen and SurveyUSA) or that interview registered voters but fail to screen to ensure that voters are likely to vote (CNN). Both approaches are flawed -- particularly this close to Election Day.

This race has shown polling all over the map. And as a colleague remarked to me just now, the battle between the party committees over what the polling actually says about this particular contest is among the most ferocious spin wars under way right now. The DSCC has reserved air time in October for this race, and obviously the real tell as to whether national Dems think this is winnable will come when we see how much cash they're willing to actually plunk down in the end.

It also depends very much on turnout for Conway.  I know a lot of folks around here are getting pretty nervous about the thought of Senator Rand Paul representing the state.  They don't trust him, and they don't like him.  Conway can win, but only if he can get people to the polls.

Rand Paul's folks certainly will here in November.