Why There's Real Hope For The Dems

The bottom line on Nate Silver's latest House model (where the GOP gains 52 seats and takes the House easily) is not that the Republicans are assured of taking the House, but that there's a pretty good chance that the polls are off a bit.  Even a 2 point change in the polls favoring one party or the other from Nate's current data makes a huge difference.  To whit, his chart:





If the polling data is underestimating the Democrats this year even by just 2 points, Nate's model says they keep the House...barely. Likewise, if the data is underestimating the Republicans by just 2 points, they gain 65 House seats.

Five points either way gives 75 seats for the Republicans in the red direction, but blue-wise it would cut the Dem losses to just 22 seats.

Such a five point underestimation happened in 1988, according to Nate. The Dems did much better than anticipated, but Bush Sr. still won the Presidency.

It's all about turnout now. Two points could mean dozens of house seats and control of the House. Make sure you vote, folks.