It's Steele Reigning, But For How Long?

The key battle in the GOP to see if the Tea Party has any real game-changing clout in the party (or if as I suspect, the conservative crazies have served their usefulness and will summarily be tossed into the crawlspace under the Big Tent as soon as possible) will come as RNC chair Michael Steele draws inevitable challengers heading into 2012.  First up:  former Michigan party head Saul Anuzis.

"We cannot be misled by our victories this year," Anuzis wrote in an announcement posted on his blog. "Chairman Steele's record speaks for itself. He has his way of doing things. I have mine."

Anuzis, clearly hoping to emerge as the choice of the anti-Steele forces within the 168 member Republican National Committee added that "I will NOT strive to be the voice or the face of our party" -- seeking to draw a direct contrast with high profile (and gaffe prone) current chairman.

This is the second time Anuzis is making a bid to lead his party. He ran and lost in 2009, dropping out after the fifth ballot.

In addition to Anuzis, there are at least four other people making calls to RNC members to test the waters for a bid, according to an informed source on the committee. That quartet includes: Wisconsin Republican party chairman Reince Priebus, who managed Steele's 2009 RNC campaign, veteran GOP strategist Maria Cino, Connecticut Republican party chairman Chris Healy and former Ambassador Ann Wagner.

While it's not clear whether any -- or all -- of those candidates will run, many people are looking at next week's Republican Governors Association gathering in San Diego as a time when people either need to be in or out.

There is significant concern among the anti-Steele forces that a crowded field could splinter the vote in enough pieces to allow him to be reelected. 

That last part there is what I expect to happen.  Steele will survive because there won't be enough solid support behind any single challenger to dethrone him, and he can say "Hey, since I became chair we took back the House.  What did you do for us?"

Besides, the real heavyweights (such as they are in the GOP) are running for Obama's job in 2012, not Steele's.  It's possible one of the contenders could drop out early and go gunning for Steele instead, but that's not a good move on the chessboard:  if you make a difference in 2012 there will be a Republican President who outranks you as party boss, and if you blow it, you're the next pinata.

Nobody serious is going to take the job, and I think Steele keeps it by default.