1) Obama would destroy her.
2) It's hard for you to arbitrarily declare victory when you lose the election.
Palin endorsed 34 candidates for the House, only 15 of whom won Tuesday. In Senate races, just five of her 12 picks were victorious.
When you come up short of the coin flip, and there's ample evidence to support the notion that your picks actually cost the Republicans Senate seats they could have won with non-Tea Party candidates, you're not actually helping much. But the fact of the matter is Sarah Palin is allowed to exist in her own little pocket universe, and unless the reality of an election comes crashing in on her, she'll remain there come hell or high water. As long as she's safe in there, she's invincible.
Basically the odds of Sarah Palin running depends entirely believing that her pocket universe resembles reality itself. The second she's convinced of her own press, she's throwing her hat in. The odds of that happening seem to be increasing on a weekly basis.
What I am sure of is that she'll have to lose either a primary or Presidential bid for Mooseferatu here to be staked through the heart. The downside to that is a Palin victory will pretty much destroy the slightly damp and burnt post-apocalyptic mess of America's future with hourly carpet bombing runs.
It may be a risk worth taking still.
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