While waiting for the remaining results to trickle in from states like Colorado and Alaska, I did a quick check on the accuracy of polls from the firm Rasmussen Reports, which came under heavy criticism this year — including from FiveThirtyEight — because its polls showed a strong lean toward Republican candidates.
Indeed, Rasmussen polls quite consistently turned out to overstate the standing of Republicans tonight. Of the roughly 100 polls released by Rasmussen or its subsidiary Pulse Opinion Research in the final 21 days of the campaign, roughly 70 to 75 percent overestimated the performance of Republican candidates, and on average they were biased against Democrats by 3 to 4 points.
Every pollster is entitled to a bad cycle now and again — and Rasmussen has had some good cycles in the past. But their polling took a major downturn this year.
Doesn't have anything to do with Scott Rasmussen's agenda, eh? Remember that going forward.
[UPDATE] Worst pollsters ever?
A Rasmussen survey in Hawaii showed Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) leading challenger Cam Cavasso (R) by 13 points two weeks ago, 53% to 40%.
The final results showed Inouye winning re-election by 51 points, 72% to 21%.
Oops. Only 38 points off in the Republican's favor. I'm sure that happens all the time.
Posts
1 comment:
38 points...well you were only off 20 on that prediction of a Grayson win, right?
And Rand Paul you were only off by 10 or so.
Hey by that measure, you're almost competent.
Almost.
Post a Comment