Shutdown Countdown, Part 6

I've been warning that the GOP may force a government shutdown as early as this month, and it looks like we're headed there pretty quickly.  Brian Beutler:

Before the midterms, conservative leaders were warning that they'd force a showdown over federal spending much earlier than expected: in the lame duck session, before the newly elected Republicans come to Washington.

They weren't joking. Republican and Democratic leaders are now engaged in a brinksmanship that could result in a temporary shutdown of the federal government. After the election, Republicans voted among themselves to eschew all earmarks for two years, and now they have to make good on their pledge.

Yesterday, Democrats' chief appropriator, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-HI) unveiled what's known as an omnibus spending bill -- a bundled up package of appropriations legislation, earmarks, and other measures -- which would keep the government running for a year.

In response, most Republicans -- even those whose multimillion dollar earmark requests are included in the legislation -- are saying, "Hell no you can't!"

That puts them all in an awkward position. At a press conference this morning, Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and John Thune (R-SD) were at pains to explain away why they requested earmarks that appear in the bill they're now railing against. But it also sets the two parties up for a standoff -- and one side must blink by this weekend, or the lights will start going out in the federal government.

Democrats will try to use the impending deadline to pass the omnibus. If it fails, they can take up a piece of legislation passed by the House known as a "continuing resolution," which will keep the government funded at current levels through next year.

Republican leaders reject both plans. They're demanding that Congress pass a short-term funding measure, which would expire early next year and give the incoming Republicans the power to cut spending significantly.

Republicans say the Democrats have forfeited the right to make a budget as they never got around to actually presenting one in 2010.  They also say they will accept nothing less than total capitulation, that they have no problem shutting the government down over Christmas and into the New Year, and that their first act in the new House in January would be to introduce a budget with significant spending cuts that they expect to be immediately approved...or they'll simply keep the government shut down until they get what they want.

Yes, it's Hostage Taking 101.  But you know what?  Democrats have folded on this kind of tactic before, and I expect them to do so again over the next month or so.  Republicans will be able to make their significant spending cuts into this recession, and of course when the economy and unemployment get worse in 2011, it'll be Obama's fault, because Republicans will abandon the "power of the purse" argument they've been using for the last four years.

Only question left is whether or not this will be repeated in March with the debt ceiling.  I don't think it will, but given the action in the bond market this month it may be a moot point.