Wednesday, March 9, 2011

The Netflix Conundrum, Part 2

Bon The Geek noted back in December that Netflix climbed to the top in the video rental business by giving customers what they wanted:  convenience of delivery.  She's right...and the model has worked so well that there's a new player in town who wants a piece of that success.  Is the new guy big enough to tangle with the Big Red Envelope?

I'd say so.  It's none other than Facebook.

Movie rentals are coming to Facebook. Warner Bros. says it is testing a service that will offer select movies for purchase or rental through the public pages of these movies on the world's largest online social network.

Starting Tuesday, Facebook users who visit the official page of "Batman: The Dark Knight" can click a "watch" icon and pay 30 Facebook credits, or $3, to watch the movie. The movie is streamed through a Facebook application.

Renters have access to a movie for 48 hours and can replay it as many times as they like. Warner Bros. said it will add other movies in coming months but did not say what those would be.

That choking sound you heard yesterday was Netflix stock taking a shot to the gonads.

"While officially dubbed a test, we expect to see more studios get behind the effort given the large platform and higher price point," wrote Jefferies analyst Youssef H. Squali in a note to investors. He added that he sees the Facebook-Warner Bros. deal as "yet another caution sign" against movie rental company Netflix Inc.'s high stock value.

Netflix lost $11.95, or 5.8 percent, to close at $195.45. Time Warner Inc., which owns Warner Bros., fell 35 cents to close at $36.43.

"With Facebook's entry, the competitive playing field is getting crowded," the analyst said. "We expect this competition to curtail Netflix's subscriber growth and drive higher content costs, impacting revenue growth and (profit) margins over time."

Yeah, Facebook's 100 million plus US users can do that.  If even one percent of Facebook users decide to use the service, that's a big ol' chunk of Netflix's revenue that goes away.  The streaming movie war is officially on, folks.

Stay tuned.

No comments:

Related Posts with Thumbnails