The Next War, Part 2

Meanwhile a new poll shows majority support for imposing a no-fly zone over Libya, but Daniel Larison notes that support starts to crumble when military specifics are mentioned.

Most Americans say they support U.S. participation in a no-fly zone over Libya as a way to neutralize Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi’s air force, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

But support slips under 50 percent when it comes to more unilateral U.S. action, as Democrats and independents peel away. And under either scenario, about a quarter of all no-fly advocates turn into opponents when the specifics of the military action are detailed [bold mine-DL]. ~The Washington Post

Put another way, a slim majority favors a no-fly zone in which the U.S. is just one participant when the respondents don’t have to think very much about what is involved. Once the respondents hear about what is involved, support plummets. The Post/ABC poll‘s question to respondents that support a no-fly zone seems reasonably accurate:

Creating a no-fly zone first requires bombing attacks on anti-aircraft positions, and then requires continuous air patrols. Given those requirements, would you support or oppose using U.S. military aircraft to create a no-fly zone in Libya?

72% of would-be supporters actually support a no-fly zone when confronted with what it would require. That means that just 40% of respondents favor a no-fly zone when the U.S. is one of many participants in enforcing it, and support for a primarily U.S. effort would be lower still. 

In other words, there's little support for the Next War if you look under the hood.  That 40% drops to around 30% when it comes to unilateral US action in Libya (There's that 27% number again!)  That's a good thing, frankly.  It's time for Europe to take care of this problem, not us.  Nine years of Afghan war and eight in Iraq means our days as global cop are over.