Sunday, April 3, 2011

The Main Event

Because Democrats have basically folded on the 2011 budget, and are going to ultimately fold on the debt ceiling fight, the real issue is going to be the future.  And Republicans are betting they can force Democrats to go along with massive, draconian cuts to Medicare and Medicaid in order to make permanent the Bush tax cuts.

The main event is the 2012 budget battle.  And Republicans like Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin are opening with every gun they have and daring the Democrats to do anything about it other than to cower and capitulate.

While Mr. Ryan and top Republican aides would not discuss specifics, there are strong indications that the proposal will draw on deficit reduction plans that Mr. Ryan laid out in his 2010 “roadmap plan” and a second proposal he wrote with Alice M. Rivlin, a director of the Office of Management and Budget in the Clinton administration.

In that plan, Ms. Rivlin and Mr. Ryan proposed that Medicaid financing be converted into a block grant program, with states given a set allotment of money and new discretion to shape health coverage programs for the poor. Their Medicare proposal would allow those nearing eligibility to remain with the current system, and it would create a program that would provide payments to Medicare enrollees to buy private health insurance.

Top Republicans have been divided on how much to tinker with Social Security, given strong Democratic opposition, its less significant contribution to the budget deficit and the political explosiveness of making any changes to the program. Officials say the budget will probably provide guidance on how to shape Social Security based on recommendations from last year’s presidential deficit-reduction committee.

Republican leaders have not previously embraced Mr. Ryan’s proposals on Medicare and Social Security, but Mr. Boehner said he had tired of watching Congress avoid difficult decisions on entitlement programs.

“You can’t continue to whistle past the graveyard,” he said. “We are imprisoning the future for our kids and our grandkids if we do not act, and it’s time to act.”

Democrats said they intended to draw sharp distinctions between their approach and that of Republicans. 

Sure they will.  Let's review the Ryan-Rivlin plan, shall we?

The plan, to be released Tuesday, calls for a controversial overhaul of Medicare, the health care program for seniors, and imposes deep cuts in Medicaid, which provides health benefits to low-income Americans, according to House Republican sources with knowledge of the proposal.

Starting 10 years from now, in 2021, Americans would no longer enroll in the Medicare program, but instead receive vouchers for private insurance, according to the GOP sources, who stressed anyone 55 or older now would not be affected by the change.

The plan is modeled after one Ryan proposed last year with Alice Rivlin, budget director under President Bill Clinton.

Details of how Ryan's Medicare voucher program would work are still unclear, but the Ryan-Rivlin plan said the amount of the voucher -- a lump sum payment from the government -- would be calculated in part by taking the average federal cost per Medicare enrollee.

The GOP aims to save billions of dollars in revamping Medicare, a large contributor to the massive federal deficit and debt.

Sources said they did not yet know how much savings Ryan would project by drastically changing the Medicare program.

On Medicaid, Ryan's plan calls for deep cuts, as much as $1 trillion. The program would also fundamentally change -- the federal share of the Medicaid system would become block grants to the states.

Privatize Medicare, make massive cuts to Medicaid, make the Bush cuts permanent.  Take money from America's poor, and from anyone 45 and under right now.  Give it to America's top 1%.  I can't wait to see the devil in these details, because I bet it's going to make a lot of assumptions when it comes to deficit reduction.

The question is simply how many Democrats will go along with the plan, and will they force the President to join them.  And when the horrible truth dawns on America, Obama will be blamed.

The GOP is going for the whole shooting match.  I doubt enough Dems will stand fast against them.

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