Mitch Turtles Up

My senator, Mitch McConnell, is confident there "will be a deal" to extend the payroll tax cut.  It's a good sign, meaning that yes, President Obama has gotten the better of the GOP again.  The question now is, as always, can the GOP leadership control the Tea Party nutjobs in the House enough to make the deal work?  That's not always a given.

We're going to reach an agreement," McConnell told "Fox News Sunday," noting there is "bipartisan support" for extending the tax cut.

The 4.2 percent payroll tax that workers pay to fund the Social Security retirement system will return to 6.2 percent in January if Congress fails to act. That would raise taxes on 160 million Americans an average of about $1,000 per family.

Democrats have led the charge to extend the tax break, raising pressure on Republicans to join in or face possible voter backlash in next November's congressional elections.

The House of Representatives is set to approve a Republican plan as early as Tuesday to extend the tax cut, tying it to a bid to accelerate approval of TransCanada Corp's Keystone XL pipeline project between the United States and Canada.

Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid has said the plan would be rejected by his chamber because of the Keystone pipeline provision opposed by President Barack Obama.

Senior congressional aides predict that Reid and the top congressional Republican, House Speaker John Boehner, will soon take the leading in brokering a deal -- just as they did in a budget fight this year to avert a partial government shutdown.

Republicans want that Keystone XL pipeline for their big energy interests.  The President has punted on the deal until after the election, and TransCanada is warning that if the deal's not closed now, they'll walk away.  On the other hand, the Republicans would be far more hurt by raising taxes on the middle class over some oil pipeline nonsense.

And they know it.  This is why Mitch is freely talking about a deal before it's happened.  Details are a killer, however.  Keep in mind also that Rick Perry, Michele Bachmann and Rick Santorum all oppose extending the payroll tax cut, while Gingrich, Romney, and Ron Paul support it.  We'll see what shapes up this week...oh, and there's more government shutdown fun on the horizon too for this week.  Keep an eye on both stories, they'll move fast.