Florida, Freshly Squeezed

Mitt Romney is winning the battle, but Republicans are losing the war if the turnout numbers in Florida are any indication.

Underneath tonight’s big win for Mitt Romney in the Florida Republican primary, is a statistic that might suggest enthusiasm is flagging among GOP voters in this large and crucial swing state: turnout was actually down significantly from 2008.

In the 2008 Republican primary in Florida, in which John McCain beat Romney by a margin of 36%-31%, a total of nearly 1.95 million votes were cast.

But in tonight’s primary, turnout was actually much lower. At time of writing, with 98% of precincts reporting, the total turnout is only about 1.65 million — a drop-off of 15% in terms of the raw number of voters.

And remember, Florida's primaries are closed.  Only Republicans can vote in the GOP primary, and a 15% drop from 2008 should be setting off serious alarm bells for the GOP. 

Take that as you will.  Charles Pierce sums it up:

Romney won because he had the most money. And because he had the most money, enough of the Tea Party "base," which was supposed to hate him like gum disease, decided thusly: What the hell? The important thing is to get the Muslim Kenyan Usurper Negro out of the White House, so this is the horse we have to ride. There were something like 13,000 commercials aired in Florida over the past couple of weeks. Ninety-two percent of them were negative, the overwhelming number of which said negative things about N. Leroy Gingrich, Definer of Civilization's Rules and Leader (Perhaps) of the Civilizing Forces, on behalf of the man who told us on Tuesday night that we should follow him into the old America of hope and joy and not bumper stickers. That is how you win the Inevitability Primary. You buy Inevitability. It doesn't come cheaply.

And despite all that money, despite Florida's massive growth, turnout was not just less, but significantly less.  More than half the FOX exit poll respondents cared about one thing: voting for someone who could defeat Barack Obama.  45% of them said that was their top priority.  Of the people who voted for Mittens yesterday, 58% said that was their top priority.  The entire GOP campaign is built on the premise of "beat the darkie."  And Mitt, they figure, has the money to do it.